A heat pump is sized from the heat your house loses on the design day, the cold day your area only drops below for about 35 hours a year. MCS requires the heat pump to meet all of that load on its own, without the electric backup heater. This calculator works out the load for where you live and shows the nearest sizes in four common ranges.
This is a planning estimate. It is not an MCS heat loss design. A heat pump installation needs a full room-by-room design from an MCS-certified installer, and so does the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant. Get your heat loss from the heat loss calculator, which links here with it filled in.
Heat loss and location carried over from the heat loss calculator.
Filled in for you from the location below. Change it if your figure came from somewhere else, for example an older survey done at -3 °C, and the load is rescaled.
Used only for the hot water cylinder, which MCS sizes separately from the heat pump.
The MCS heat pump standard, MIS 3005-D, sets the rule: work out the heat load room by room at the design outdoor temperature, then choose a heat pump that provides at least 100% of it at the design flow temperature, without any input from the backup heater. The calculator does the first step, then for each of four ranges lists the smallest model whose headline rating is at least the load. A headline rating does not show the output at your design conditions, so for the second step, check the manufacturer's data.
If the heat loss was worked out at your area's design temperature, as the heat loss calculator does, the load is that figure. If it came from an older survey at a flat -3 °C, it is scaled to your area, because heat loss rises in proportion to the temperature difference. The scaling is an approximation, because solid floors and party walls lose heat to temperatures that do not change with the weather. Moving the 1930s semi from our heat loss tests from Leeds to Birmingham, the scaled figure comes out about 0.4% above a full room-by-room recalculation; scaling to a milder place reads a similar amount low.
The estimate panel is for when you have no heat loss figure yet. It models a simple house from your floor area, storeys, built form and age, and applies the heat loss calculator's room-by-room method to it. The model house has a square plan, two external doors, RdSAP's default window area for its age, and the air changes and room temperatures of a typical room mix. Ceilings are 2.4 m, or 2.7 m for a house built before 1930, unless you enter a height. The loft takes RdSAP's default insulation for the age unless you choose one. If yours has been topped up the estimate reads high, and if it has less it reads low. On three test houses, a 1930s semi, a mid-terrace and a Victorian terrace, the estimate was between 4% under and 6% over the full room-by-room figure. Start with it, then measure the rooms when you need a figure you can rely on.
The table shows, for each range, the smallest model whose headline rating is at least the load. Any that are under 125% of the load are marked to check. The ranges are Vaillant aroTHERM plus, Mitsubishi Ecodan R290, Daikin Altherma 3 monobloc and Samsung EHS Mono R290, from the manufacturers' own pages read in September 2026. Those ratings are the headline figures, usually measured at 7 °C outside and 35 °C water. On the design day at 45 or 50 °C flow a heat pump can give out less than that, and by how much varies by model. Treat the list as a first cut and check the output at your design conditions in the manufacturer's data. Our ventilation defaults are also cautious, so an installer's MCS figure for an older house can come out lower than ours; that is not by itself a sign of undersizing. Model numbers do not always give the output: Viessmann's Vitocal 150-A types A04 to A16 are rated from 4.0 to 9.1 kW.
MIS 3005-D sizes hot water separately: 45 litres a day for each person, counting the greater of the bedrooms plus one or the people living there. That sets the cylinder. The heat pump reheats it between heating periods, so the hot water does not normally add to the heat pump size.
The 1930s cavity-wall semi in Leeds from the heat loss calculator's test set loses 7,370 W at Leeds' design temperature of -3.3 °C.
Now take a heat loss of 6,800 W from an old survey done at -3 °C for a house in Birmingham, where the design temperature is -5.1 °C: 6,800 × (21 + 5.1) ÷ (21 + 3) = 7,395 W. The 2.1 °C difference adds 8.75%, taking it past a 7 kW unit.
It depends on the heat loss of the house. The 1930s three-bedroom cavity-wall semi in our worked example needs 7.4 kW on the design day in Leeds, which points to a 7.5 to 10 kW unit depending on the range. Check that unit's output at your design conditions in the manufacturer's data. A well-insulated modern three-bed needs much less, and an uninsulated solid-wall one much more, so work out the heat loss first.
Under MCS, yes. MIS 3005-D requires the heat pump to provide at least 100% of the calculated heat load at the design flow temperature, without help from its backup electric heater. That is also a condition of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant. Hybrid systems that pair a smaller heat pump with a boiler follow different rules and are not eligible for the grant.
A modest margin is normal because units come in steps. A heat pump that is much bigger than the load costs more to buy and can cycle on and off in mild weather, which lowers its efficiency. The calculator shows the nearest size in each range and marks any under 125% of your load to check against the data sheet. Oversizing usually comes from an overstated heat loss, so get that figure right first.
The design outdoor temperature for your area, which MCS takes from CIBSE's figures for 14 UK weather stations: for example -3.0 °C in London, -3.3 °C in Leeds, -5.1 °C in Birmingham and -5.6 °C in Glasgow at the 99.6th percentile, colder by 0.6 °C for every full 100 m above the station.
Model names are marketing shorthand, and ratings are measured at mild test conditions, usually 7 °C outside and 35 °C water. For sizing, use the output at your design temperature and flow temperature, which is in the manufacturer's technical data. Viessmann's Vitocal 150-A range, for example, runs from type A04 to A16 but is rated at 4.0 to 9.1 kW.
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